Expert: Europe’s refusal of Russian gas in short time possible, but not easy

Against the backdrop of the preparation of the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, which, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, will include the energy sector, the question of the possibility of the West refusing Russian gas is becoming increasingly relevant.

Report informs that against the backdrop of large-scale sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation due to hostilities in Ukraine, the most difficult decision is to abandon Russian oil and gas, on which the EU countries are highly dependent.

“We are currently developing clever mechanisms so that the next level of sanctions can also include oil,” von der Leyen said about the next package of sanctions.

According to POLITICO, a complete phasing out of Russian energy is also supported by European Council President Charles Michel, who said that sanctions on Russian oil and gas will be needed “sooner or later.”

According to the forecasts of the Vice-President of the European Commission, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, Europe will be able to dispense with gas from Russia in two years. In this regard, the EU is trying to diversify resources, and the Middle East can play a big role in this, he said in an interview with Sky News Arabia.

Robert Songer, LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS, told Report that it may technically be possible, but it will certainly be extremely difficult: “Given the limited scope to increase throughput in the existing supply network, demand-side reduction will likely be an important component in offsetting lost Russian supply.”

“The issue Europe has is that the bulk of the import capacity is in the south of the continent, while the demand is in the north. Northern Europe would therefore need to build more import capacity than it already has to be able to realistically replace Russian pipeline volumes with LNG. There has been a lot of noise about potential new LNG FSRUs but supply is finite and demand is now huge,” he noted.

“The quickest way to boost import infrastructure is by deploying floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). However, as ICIS estimates that there are probably less than a dozen units that are not fixed down on a long-term basis, demand for these is now very high. A new one ordered now would likely take another 2-3 years to be delivered,” he added.