OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand in 2021

OPEC has downgraded the forecast for global oil demand in 2021 to 5.8 million barrels per day instead of 6 million barrels, Report informs, referring to the October report of the organization.

In 2022, OPEC still expects demand to grow by 4.2 million barrels per day.

Global oil demand is expected to increase by 5.8 million barrels per day in 2021, according to the report. In August, OPEC forecast demand growth this year by 6 million barrels per day.

At the same time, forecasts for the last quarter of this year are generally positive, taking into account seasonal demand and the possibility of switching from gas to oil in the power generation sector.

According to OPEC estimates, global oil demand in 2021 will average 96.6 million barrels per day.

The forecast for demand growth in 2022 is maintained at the level of last month’s estimate of 4.2 million barrels per day, the report noted. The forecast was influenced by expectations of good economic growth in major consumer countries as they gradually come out of the coronavirus pandemic.

The organization predicts that oil demand in 2022 will reach 100.8 million barrels per day, which will exceed the level that existed before the COVID pandemic.

The report also says that commercial stocks of oil and oil products in OECD countries in August fell below the five-year average by 183 million barrels and below the 2015-2019 indicator by 131 million barrels.

Preliminary data for August show that total commercial stocks of oil and petroleum products in the OECD fell by 19.5 million barrels compared to the previous month, the report said.

Having reached the level of 2.855 billion barrels, they were 363 million barrels lower than last year, by 183 million barrels per day below the average for the last five years and by 131 million barrels below the average level of 2015-2019, according to the report.

Bringing commercial reserves of oil and petroleum products in the world to the average five-year level was originally designated as the goal of the OPEC+ deal. Of all the reserves, the parties to the agreement are most actively tracking stocks in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

However, in 2021, the members of the alliance began to focus on an additional target - the average value of reserves for 2015-2019, since oil reserves were at an abnormally high level for almost the entire 2020.