Lagarde says ECB may raise interest rate in July

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said a first interest-rate increase in more than a decade may follow “weeks” after net bond-buying ends early next quarter, joining a growing crowd of policy makers signaling a move as soon as July, Report informs referring to Bloomberg.

“The first rate hike, informed by the ECB’s forward guidance on the interest rates, will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases,” Lagarde said May 11.

“We have not yet precisely defined the notion of ‘some time,’ but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks,” she said in a speech in Ljubljana, Slovenia, advocating a “gradual” normalization of monetary policy after the initial increase.

Faced with record inflation that’s almost four times the ECB’s 2% goal, Lagarde’s ECB colleagues are increasingly pushing publicly for a hike at the July 20-21 meeting. While the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are well under way with policy tightening, the ECB hasn’t raised borrowing costs since 2011. Its deposit rate has been negative since 2014.

Despite the war in Ukraine raising the specter of stagflation in Europe, money markets are fully pricing quarter-point increases from the ECB in its July and September decisions, with a further hike by year-end. Traders are betting the deposit rate will peak at 1.5% in about two years’ time.