Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) released Monday expects global GDP to fall by 4.4% in 2020, a modest upward revision from the 4.6% decline expected in the June GEO. Report informs citing the
"China has already regained its pre-virus level of GDP and retail sales in the US, France and the UK now exceed February levels, but we doubt this will become the much-lauded 'V'-shaped recovery. Unemployment shocks lie ahead in Europe, firms are cutting capex, and social distancing continues to directly constrain private-sector spending", said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, Fitch Ratings.
We now expect the US economy to contract by 4.6% this year compared to a fall of 5.6% in the June GEO. Our 2020 China growth forecast is +2.7% (this was revised in late-July at the time of our most recent China sovereign rating review) compared to +1.2% in the June GEO. These revisions have been partly offset by cuts to our 2020 GDP forecasts for the eurozone to -9.0% (-8.0%), the UK to -11.5% (-9.0%) and for emerging markets (EM) excluding China to -5.7% (-4.7%). The latter primarily reflects a huge change in our India forecast for the fiscal year-ending March 2021 (FY21) to -10.5% from -5.0%.
Official data have now revealed the extent of the economic dislocation in 2Q20 with world GDP falling by 8.9% yoy and many countries seeing falls in output of a fifth or more. The UK, India, France, Italy and Spain stand out, having experienced stringent and/or lengthy lockdowns in 2Q20 which saw mobility (visits to retail and recreation venues) levels fall very sharply and 2Q20 GDP surprise on the downside compared with our June GEO estimates.
Global GDP forecast revised up modestly: Fitch Ratings
Finance
September 8, 2020
14:33
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Azerbaijani version
Dünya ÜDM-inin azalmasına dair proqnoz yeniləndi
Russian version
Fitch улучшило прогноз по снижению мирового ВВП в 2020 году