Greater Horn of Africa forecast to get above-average rainfall

The Greater Horn of Africa is finally emerging from three years of devastating drought, with above average rainfall predicted for the forthcoming season, Report informs, citing World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Whilst this is a welcome prospect, it is accompanied by the risk that flooding will impact local communities and livelihoods.

A new seasonal outlook for the October to December rainy season shows high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, there is an exceptionally high probability (more than 80%) of experiencing wetter-than-usual rainfall in southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia. On the other hand, drier-than-usual conditions are likely for isolated areas of south-western Uganda and south-western South Sudan.

Much of the region saw heavy rainfall from March to May 2023. The above-average precipitation from October to December may therefore contribute to flooding.
Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, added a cautionary note.

“Desert locusts are already proliferating to alarming levels in parts of the region. The risk of deadly incidents also increases significantly. We all remember the last El Niño in 2015/16 when downpours of torrential rains caused landslides, flash floods, and buildings to collapse. Governments and disaster management agencies are advised to take all necessary measures to save lives and livelihoods,” he said.